Breast cancer cases worldwide are projected to increase sharply over the coming decades, reaching an estimated 3.5 million diagnoses annually by 2050, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet Oncology.
Researchers involved in the Global Burden of Disease Study say the projected rise is largely driven by population growth and ageing, even though global incidence and mortality rates have remained relatively stable in recent years.
The study estimates that breast cancer deaths could climb by 44 percent to about 1.4 million annually by 2050, compared with current figures.
Breast cancer remains the most common cancer among women globally, accounting for roughly one in four cancer diagnoses among women in 2023.
Despite significant advances in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, the disease continues to impose a major health burden. In 2023 alone, breast cancer accounted for an estimated 2.3 million new cases, 764,000 deaths, and 24.1 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among women worldwide.
DALYs measure the number of years of healthy life lost due to illness, disability, or premature death, making them a key indicator used by global health researchers to assess disease impact.
Lead author Kayleigh Bhangdia of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said the findings highlight the growing strain breast cancer places on communities worldwide.
“Breast cancer continues to take a profound toll on women’s lives and communities,” Bhangdia said.
The study examined epidemiological trends across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, while also projecting global patterns through 2050.
Changing risk factors
The research identified a number of shifting risk factors contributing to the growing burden of breast cancer.
Rising obesity rates and changing reproductive patterns including earlier puberty, delayed childbirth, and later menopause have significantly reshaped breast cancer risk profiles.
Lifestyle factors also play a substantial role. Researchers estimate that 28 percent of the global breast cancer burden in 2023 can be linked to behavioral risks.
Among these, high consumption of red meat was associated with about 11 percent of healthy life years lost, followed by tobacco use, elevated blood sugar levels, high body mass index, alcohol consumption, and low physical activity.
Co-senior author Marie Ng noted that many of these risks are modifiable, meaning prevention strategies could significantly reduce future cases.
“With more than a quarter of the global breast cancer burden linked to six modifiable lifestyle factors, there are tremendous opportunities to alter the trajectory of breast cancer risk for the next generation,” Ng said.
She added that stronger public health policies and improved access to healthier lifestyle choices could play a key role in slowing the rise of breast cancer globally.
Uneven global burden
The study also revealed major geographical disparities in breast cancer incidence and mortality.
Over the past three decades, high-income countries have reduced breast cancer mortality and DALY rates by around 30 percent, largely due to improved screening programmes, earlier diagnosis, and better treatment options.
However, women in these countries still accounted for about 61 percent of global breast cancer deaths in 2023.
Incidence rates were highest in wealthy nations including Monaco, Andorra, France, Germany and Ireland.
Within Europe, the lowest rates were recorded in Albania, Ukraine, Moldova, Russia and Bulgaria.
Researchers noted that higher incidence rates in wealthier countries do not necessarily indicate worse outcomes, as strong healthcare systems often ensure early detection and effective treatment.
By contrast, the burden is increasingly shifting toward low- and lower-middle-income countries, where access to screening and high-quality treatment remains limited.
According to Bhangdia, this trend threatens to undermine progress in women’s health globally.
“The mounting burden of breast cancer is shifting to low- and lower middle-income countries where individuals often face later-stage diagnosis, more limited access to quality care, and higher death rates,” she said.
