Nigeria’s exports to other African countries rose sharply to N10.72tn in the first half of 2026, representing a 122.26 per cent increase from the N4.82tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
However, economists and trade experts have cautioned that the surge in the naira value of exports should not automatically be interpreted as a similar increase in Nigeria’s real export earnings, citing the impact of naira depreciation and the dominance of crude oil and petroleum products.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ foreign trade reports for the first two quarters of 2026 showed that crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea accounted for approximately 94.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa during the period, with a combined value of about N10.15tn.
This compared with a 90.24 per cent share, valued at N4.35tn, during the first half of 2025.
The oil and gas value chain consequently grew by 133.36 per cent year-on-year, exceeding the overall export growth of 122.26 per cent.
The figures indicate that petroleum-related products were the principal drivers of Nigeria’s expanding trade with the continent.
In contrast, identifiable non-oil exports recorded a decline. Products including cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations fell from approximately N309.46bn in H1 2025 to N296.61bn in H1 2026, representing a 4.15 per cent decrease.
Their share of total exports to Africa also dropped from 6.42 per cent to 2.77 per cent.
The development has raised questions about the sustainability and quality of Nigeria’s export growth, particularly as the Federal Government continues to promote diversification away from crude oil.
Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, described the phenomenon as a “naira illusion,” warning that naira-denominated figures can rise substantially simply because of currency depreciation without a corresponding increase in dollar earnings.
According to Teriba, a weaker naira can make the value of the same volume of foreign-currency earnings appear much larger when converted into local currency.
He also called for intra-African trade to be assessed more clearly in dollar terms to provide a better picture of actual export performance.
The emergence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has also played a significant role in the increase.
Trade expert Marcel Mba linked much of the growth to refined petroleum products and petrochemicals entering African markets from the refinery.
Nigeria’s export performance has changed considerably over the past six years. Exports to Africa stood at N1.38tn in H1 2020 before falling to N963bn in 2021 and N904.05bn in 2022.
They recovered to N1.31tn in 2023, climbed to N4.21tn in 2024 and reached N4.82tn in 2025 before the latest surge.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group has raised concerns about the country’s limited manufacturing contribution to exports.
It reported that manufactured goods accounted for only 0.9 per cent of Nigeria’s intra-African trade in the first quarter of 2026, down from two per cent in Q3 2025.
In Q2 2026 alone, Nigeria exported goods worth N6.65tn to African countries. Togo, South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Egypt accounted for 74.75 per cent of the total.
The figures underscore both the expanding scale of Nigeria’s African trade and the structural challenge facing the country: translating higher export values into stronger non-oil production, manufacturing capacity and sustainable foreign-exchange earnings.
