Global markets traded cautiously higher on Friday, with oil prices ticking up and equities gaining as investors looked ahead to crucial US–Iran ceasefire talks set for Saturday in Islamabad.
European stocks opened mostly in positive territory, while oil prices edged upward amid lingering uncertainty over the fragile ceasefire and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz a vital route for global energy supplies.
The upcoming negotiations, aimed at securing a lasting ceasefire in the Iran conflict, will be led by US Vice President JD Vance. However, renewed Israeli strikes in Lebanon earlier this week have cast doubt over the stability of the truce.
Iran has maintained control of the Strait of Hormuz despite US pressure to reopen the waterway, raising concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil and gas shipments. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved separate talks with Lebanon, expected to take place in Washington next week a move analysts say could be key to sustaining broader peace efforts.
According to Deutsche Bank Research, easing tensions in Lebanon could help prevent the ceasefire from collapsing ahead of the weekend negotiations.
Oil and Inflation in Focus
Oil prices posted modest gains, with Brent crude rising 0.8% to $96.71 per barrel and US benchmark crude climbing 0.4% to $98.60.
Barclays analyst Ajay Rajadhyaksha noted that pre-war oil price levels are unlikely to return, forecasting Brent crude to average around $85 per barrel this year. “A ceasefire is not a refund,” he said, emphasizing that while conflicts may end, their economic impacts persist.
Attention is also on US inflation data for March, expected to reflect the early effects of the conflict. Deutsche Bank analysts predict a sharp monthly increase of 0.95% in headline inflation potentially the highest since mid-2022 pushing the annual rate back to 3.4%.
Mixed Signals Across Global Markets
In Europe, major indices showed early gains, with Frankfurt’s DAX and Paris’s CAC 40 both rising over 0.5%, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped slightly.
Corporate updates painted a mixed picture. Porsche AG reported a 15% drop in first-quarter sales due to weaker demand in China, sending its shares lower. In contrast, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) posted strong growth, with March sales surging over 45% year-on-year, boosting its stock.
Asian markets followed a generally positive trend, supported by softer-than-expected inflation data from China. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.6%, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite also posted gains, though Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged lower.
Bonds, Currencies and Commodities
Bond yields moved higher, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose to 3.016%, while the UK and US equivalents also ticked up.
Meanwhile, gold and silver prices declined, and the US dollar strengthened slightly against the Japanese yen. The euro dipped marginally against the dollar.
Overall, markets remain cautiously optimistic, but sentiment continues to hinge on geopolitical developments and the outcome of the upcoming US–Iran talks.
